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Date:
Wed, 14 Oct 1998 23:43:22, -0500
(MR
LARRY K WELLMAN)
Subject:
Inspection Report
Inspection
Report:
A few
weeks ago I posted some preliminary information about
paddock
inspections from Laurel race track.
I've analyzed eight
different
race programs totaling 80 races. Of the
80 races I
missed
three races where I did not get inspection information.
The 77
races resulted in 619 horses. I
recorded about 10-12
different
pieces of information about the horse running thoses
days. Some horses might have three or four pieces
while other
might
have nothing recorded. I'm going to
present info on 11 of
the
variables with the following format for each inspection
angle:
Total
Number of horses- Winners - Seconds - Thirds - Impact Value
- -
Return on Investment (ROI) ($1) i.e. 30-7-4-3-1.1-.65
Impact
Value is based on the percent of winning horses meeting
the
criteria divided by the percent of all winners (77/619)
The ROI
is based on the total dollars won on the winners divided
by the
total amount bet on all horses meeting the criteria. The
ROI for
all 619 horses is .7315.
The
inspection angles can be broken into a couple of categories:
horse condition,
horse attitude, and trainer intention.
Under
horse condition I put the following:
Coat
Dappling:229-29-31-19-1.018-.5668
Sweating:43-6-4-6-1.122-.9326
Under
horse attitude I have:
On
Toes:56-8-4-7-1.148-.4911
Acting
Up:22-6-3-2-2.19-2.018
Relax:200-22-36-24-.884-.5545
Dump:25-2-2-1-.643-.208
Trainer
Intention:
Braids:74-7-11-11-.760-.4986
Two
Handlers:10-2-2-2-1.607-1.93
Saddle
Out:22-5-3-0-2.19(1.827)-1.713
On
Track Indicator:66-13-8-10-1.583-1.4378
NONE:
No Observable Negative Elements
NONE:
119-19-12-21-1.418(1.284)-1.313
Summary
Table
|
Number
Races |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
77 |
619 |
77 |
77 |
77 |
1.000 |
0.7315 |
|
|
|
Description |
Number Horses |
Wins |
Place |
Third |
Impact Value |
ROI |
Bet |
Value |
|
Coat Dappling |
229 |
29 |
31 |
19 |
1.018 |
0.5668 |
over |
|
|
Sweating |
43 |
6 |
4 |
6 |
1.122 |
0.9326 |
under |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
On Toes |
56 |
8 |
4 |
7 |
1.148 |
0.4911 |
over |
|
|
Acting Up |
22 |
6 |
3 |
2 |
2.192 |
2.018 |
under |
yes |
|
Relaxed |
200 |
22 |
36 |
24 |
0.884 |
0.5545 |
over |
|
|
Dump |
25 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0.643 |
0.208 |
over |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Braids |
74 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
0.760 |
0.4986 |
over |
|
|
Two
Handlers |
10 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1.608 |
1.93 |
under |
yes |
|
Saddled
Out |
22 |
5 |
3 |
0 |
1.827 |
1.713 |
under |
yes |
|
On Track
Indicator |
66 |
13 |
8 |
10 |
1.583 |
1.4378 |
under |
yes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NONE |
119 |
19 |
12 |
21 |
1.284 |
1.313 |
under |
yes |
Here's
the definitions for the above items.
Coat
Dappling-a horse in good health will show dapple spots on
the
hind quarters and along the side of the chest.
Most
chestnuts,
roans and grays horses are difficult to see the
dappling. Some might fall into the NONE category.
Sweating-
indicates the horse showing excessive sweating, kidney
sweat
or neck sweat. (this could also be put under attitude)
On
Toes- means a horse that appears to be dancing showing a
spring
in his step as he is walked around the paddock, both
before
or after being saddled. ( Positive energy)
Acting
Up- is very close to on toes except the horse is fighting
or
struggling with the handlers, before saddling, during
saddling,
and during jockey mounting. (High energy level)
Relax- means
a horse that walks around the paddock in a very
relaxed
state with his head straight forward, once in a while
might
lift his head to check out a noise, etc.
The horse is not
dull or
listless appears to understand what is expected, a
professional. Works well in maiden races. (a subjective
angle)
Dump-
the horse defecated in the paddock before or after
saddling
and before going on the track (nervousness)
Braids-the
horse has the hair on the mane and/or tail braided or
the
hair on the mane shows a perm. I put
this under trainer to
include
the barn help. ( Want to look good for the win photo)
Two
Handlers-this is when a horse is brought into the paddock
with
two handlers and after saddling. The
trainer knows the
horse
is ready and wants to take no chances on a problem.
Saddled
Out- means when the horse is saddled outside of the
paddock
stall away from other horses.
On
track Indicator-This indicator is relative to the horses
performing
a proper warm up prior to the race.
NONE-this
is a horse that while inspecting does not show any of
the
above characteristics. I included horse
that stayed in their
stalls
after saddling in this category.
Larry